TR EMERITUS

I refer to The CNA’s Commentary: “Putin escalates Ukraine war by a step, not a leap, with missile experiment” (Nov 23).

Foremost, Zelenskyi’s intention to join Nato has greatly threatened the security and survival of Russia. Hence, Zelenskyy has offended Putin and Putin has no choice but to launch a war with Ukraine in February 2022.

Since the beginning of Russia-Ukraine War from February 2022 till today has lasted for thirty-three months. So far, we have seen Ukraine has lost four states, namely Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and
Kherson.

Further, since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the land has endured 1,000 days of war. Some 80,000 Ukrainian soldiers and more than 12,000 civilians have been killed, nearly 4 million have been internally displaced, and more than 6.8 million have fled Ukraine for refuge (according to Western estimates).

In addition, Ukraine suffered a crushing defeat in Bakhmut in 2023, and in February 2024, the town of Avdiivka fell after months of Russian airstrikes.

Even if In August 2024, Ukraine had a brilliant performance on the battlefield, when the Ukrainian army launched a surprise invasion of Russia, occupying hundreds of square kilometers of land in the Kursk region, which is still occupying it today, as well as the Ukrainian army will first use the long-range tactical missile system ATACMS provided by the US military and the "Storm Shadow" long-range cruise missile jointly developed by Britain and France to strike Russian territory in Kursk (pointed out by 《Le Figaro》）, it will be too late, as it will not change the fate of Ukraine's defeat on the battlefield.

Anyway, in Nov 21, 2024 President Vladimir Putin has adopted tit for tat stratagem, he ordered to fire a nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) strike on Dnipro, Ukraine. This ICBM has been identified as an RS-26 Rubezh （It flies at Mach 10 and can carry six nuclear warheads).

At present, even if Russia and Ukraine recognize that after Trump is in power again, it is very likely to call for and prompt Putin and Zelensky to return to the peaceful negotiating table, however, according to the analysis of many military experts, Russia will definitely not return the four eastern regions of Ukraine that have been captured by sacrificing the lives of hundreds of thousands of troops and civilians, and Russia will do its best to demand more than 20,000 economic sanctions imposed on Russia by the United States and its European allies to be scrapped. At the same time, Russia also wants the United States to guarantee that Ukraine will never join NATO. In other words, Ukraine is back to square one: it can't join NATO.

The valuable lessons that we can learn from the Russia-Ukraine War is, war is extremely destructive to any nation and her people. And, choosing a wise and capable top political leader to lead the country is also equally important.

Teo Kueh Liang (Mr)