TR EMERITUS

The mainstream and financial media makes a recession sounds like a big disaster. They sensationalize its impact. Let me explain. If the economy contracts by 2%, it means that the total output of the economy drop by 2%. It could mean that 2% of the workers gets unemployed. While this is serious to those who are impacted, it is not a big disaster. Actually, the number of unemployed people is larger. If the population increases by 2%, an additional 2% of young people will enter the workforce. They need the economy to grow by 2% to provide the jobs for these new entrants. Furthermore, let us say that another 5% of the workers are already unemployed. So, the total unemployed workforce could be 9% and not just 2%. If the unemployed people do not have any income, they have to cut down on their consumption. This could cause the economy to drop further. However, many countries have an state run unemployment benefit scheme. The unemployed people have access to the benefits, perhaps for one or two years, to tide over. They can survive on their unemployment benefit. For countries that do not have unemployment benefit, such as Singapore, the state should provide an alternative. I suggest that they be allowed to withdraw from the retirement savings, namely the Central Provident Fund. The amount allowed to be withdrawn should be capped by amount and allowed for a certain period, say up to a year. For those who have used up all of their retirement savings, they should be allowed to run a negative balance on their CPF account, up to a limit. This is better than forcing them to rely on loan sharks. Some of these loans will have to be written off when the borrower is not able to repay it from future savings. However, the write-off is likely to be bearable for the state. If the workers are protected by unemployment benefit (in some countries) or withdrawal from retirement savings (as I have suggested), they will not face financial hardship. They can continue to meet their living expenses, and consumption will continue as normal. There is no need for the employed workforce to reduce their consumption in the fear that they might become lost their jobs in a shrinking economy. I now suggest how the country can deal with unemployment that  runs at 10% for a longer period. A simple answer is to reduce the working hours of the employed workforce by 10%, say from 44 hours to 39 hours a week. A 10% reduction in statutory working hours will create 10% more jobs. As productivity grows, it is sensible to reduce the working hours over time. This will lead to a better living standard for all. Each country has the means to deal with a recession or unemployment, but it requires the government to be more pro-active and to deal with this matter differently from the economic practice adopted in the past. ​​​​​​​Tan Kin Lian       Read More →

This white-haired elderly gentleman caught my attention at Hong Lim Park on the 50th anniversary observance of Operation Coldstore in 2015. Fiery oration in Mandarin, without a script. That was my first impression of Mr Lee Tee Tong, the elected Member of Parliament for Bukit Timah in 1963. He was the candidate from Barisan Sosialis, winning with over 50% of the votes in a 3-corner fight against the PAP and United People's Party candidates. But this Mr Lee never got to even smell the leather of the parliamentary chamber in what is now known as the Arts House. That same year, under the pretext of containing the communist danger, Mr Lee Tee Tong was incarcerated under the Internal Security Act and detained without trial for a total of 18 years and at the prime of his life! Mr Lee was a significant union leader in his early career, effective and commanding with his fearless oratory. Mr Lee Tee Tong passed away in the early hours of 18 December 2023 at Tan Tock Seng Hospital after a long illness. At his wake held at the void deck of Block 157 Lorong 1 Toa Payoh, his widow Huang Liang Qin told a reporter: "Lee Tee Tong has never given up on his political beliefs all these years." Mr Lee Tee Tong will be cremated on Friday, 22 Dec at 11.45am at Mandai Crematorium Hall 1. Mr Lee Tee Tong will live on in the hearts of those who fought the neo-colonialists alongside him and for the betterment of the lives of his fellow men. Rest in peace, Mr Lee.   Chan Wai Han * Posted on Function 8 Facebook.  Read More →

I recently went to a few business network gatherings (BNI) and I found the community of 30 to 90 on fire. At least, that was the first impression. They all came for a specific purpose: business connection. They shared unabashedly. Each taking a few minutes to intro their area of specialty. At one point, members take turn to share their referrals and conversion rate in monetary terms. There is breakfast being served too, which comes with a small fee. And there is also a membership cost for entry. It’s good for one year, and they would remind you publicly to sign up when the time draws nigh. These weekly meetings are structured and systematic, most times, the members are highly enthusiastic. Upon signing up, they would set up chatgroups, and use it as a live and active platform to send out messages of successful sales, business activities, and festive invites. Their participation seems genuine. The friendship rather organic, that is, if you click, you click. I expect not everyone clicked, or come with the same enthusiasm, or participation level. But, they do connect beyond business interests. They organised social meetings and talkingcock sessions as well. I write this in parallel to the article below. It’s about social gatherings too. But it is of a religious kind, of a particular faith. Camilla Cavendish wrote that “there is overwhelming evidence that religious faith bolsters mental health.” “In Britain, the Institute for Impact of Faith in Life finds that those with declared religious affiliations (Christian, Muslim, Jewish, Hindu, Sikh and Buddhist) report significantly higher psychological well-being than atheists: 70 per cent to 49 per cent. They are also more optimistic about the future, in similar ratio.” In a few US surveys, these religious groups are “more likely to say they are very satisfied with their lives, than are those who earn over US$100,000 a year.” Lastly, “one study of depression among older Europeans found that joining a church, synagogue or mosque was more effective in improving their mental health than participating in volunteering, sport or political clubs, despite the fact that these activities also provide a sense of purpose and a chance to meet other people.” There you have it. It seems like religious gathering is, on statistical surveys, more beneficial as a whole than any other gatherings, whether for business connections, sports or political agendas. Maybe the attraction is the awe and wonder factor. And it helps that religion has a long history, with what Camilla calls, “the restorative power of ritual.” Rituals may be man-made, but they are of symbolic persuasions rooted deep in religious significance. They are mixed with parables, myths, metanarratives, and a utopia to escape from, all of which elevates us from our current economic grind. Based on faith, hope and love, these intangible benchmarks go beyond worldly metric of money, praises of men, and accolades, although the two are not mutually exclusive. That is why religion well organised can be a very profitable business too. Further, it exceptionalises us, making us feel exuberantly loved, and singled-out by a divine human-like embodiment existing beyond this world. For religions that do not subscribe to such divine personality, the draw is still a form of singling-out, an exclusivity bestowed that appeals to their sense of awe and wonder. It’s akin to them embarking on a journey to seek out the ultimate answer to life’s most vexing questions. And that purpose is similarly beyond this world as they pursue and embrace self-enlightenment, along the way. Lesson? Just one. Well, the battle for truths has become a long-standing gladiatorial sport. There is even an unmistakable trail of blood and gore to show. We are still fighting over it, and making it personal, passing down the baton to our children, and they to theirs. Lots of money, gold, properties, and pride are involved, and we have built institutions and laws around it for self-preservation and extension. That story is ongoing. And I will leave that for another day. The point is that we are social animals. And religion or otherwise, we will gather as families, groups, communities or political parties. The big picture is more complicated, and I believe, beyond the scope of surveys. For some of us, hell is other people, and we avoid such gatherings at all cost. We carefully select our circle of friends. Some avoid family like plagues. For most of us, heaven is other people and we find solace, strength and inspiration congregating together. It’s trite to say, no man or woman is an island, but sometimes we need islands to recenter and recharge, before we row out to the archipelago of islands around us, to mingle and fellowship. That is the universal law of the evolution of us. Not everyone subscribes to the tale of Adam and Eve and the Garden of Eden, but this truth still remains: it is not good for us to be alone, and we need a helper, an encourager, a well-wisher, a friend, a fellow sojourner, a mentor, a partner, and the list goes on, to make us complete, or close to complete.   Micheal Han      Read More →