TR EMERITUS

By Gilbert Goh I have read from many online blogs that the government may lose its grip on power with some even predicting it’s downfall during the next election. Many also forecasted that the foreigner influx will be a serious enough issue to push many voters who are sitting on the fences all along to vote for the opposition. I beg to differ here. Bread and butter issues have all along figure hugely on how the pragmatic Singaporean voters will vote. Voters will vote for the government if it can provide enough work for the whole population and the people feel well taken care of. Many have even exchanged some of their basic citizens’ right for the assurance of a comfortable living lifestyle. And why not? Many older married Singaporeans – the traditional voting base of the PAP - have pragmatically reasoned that having a good job and a decent roof over one’s head is definitely better than getting all the democratic goodies that younger educated Singaporeans are craving for right now. It is foreseeable that the post-65s voters will split down the line on who they will vote for during an election. The average older Singaporeans and stay-at-home housewives will likely vote for the PAP. However, the current anti-foreigner sentiments have indeed weigh adversely against the ruling party. No one though will dare to predict that this will cause a vote swing large enough to allow the opposition to win any seats in the next elections let alone topple the ruling party from power. Many Singaporeans, especially those in the vulnerable age group of between 40 – 60, have found themselves displaced by cheaper younger foreigners. From blue collared service staff in eateries to IT executives of multi national corporations, many Singaporeans have found themselves been made jobless by foreigners. Though globalization is always there and our country has welcomed foreigners all along, this is the first time that the invasion has been so massive and destructive. Incoming foreigner migrants have also caused public housing prices to shoot through the roof angering many Singaporeans in the process. Employers will be merciless here and will not hesitate to fire our local workers if they can find cheaper better foreign alternatives. Professionals, managers, engineers and technicians (PMETS) now found that they have to compete with cheaper foreigners for jobs that normally belonged to the local workforce. If the opposition parties could shrewdly exploit this major grievance, the advantage is theirs to seize. It is true that the foreigner worker factor will figure hugely on how the ruling party will fare in the next elections. Of course, on the other hand, the huge plus point for the ruling party will be the extra votes that it can anticipate to reap from the foreign-citizens. New foreign-born citizens will not want to bite the hand that feeds them and moreover all they have now is just thanks-giving for the ruling party who have given them a new lease of life in a first-world country. The statistics of the most recent general elections in 2006 were summarized as follows: The 2006 Singapore parliamentary general election was held on 6 May 2006. 1.22 million out of the 2.16 million eligible Singaporeans voted for Members of Parliament and elected their next government.[1] The People's Action Party (PAP), in its first election under Lee Hsien Loong, won 66.6% of the overall votes and gained 82 out of 84 seats. The PAP returned for a twelfth consecutive term in office under the Prime Minister.[2] The general election was held under the first-past-the-post system. The parliament was dissolved by President S R Nathan on 20 April, three weeks before the election. On Nomination Day, the PAP gained 37 seats in divisions which were uncontested by other parties.[3] The main election issues included employment, cost of living, housing, transport, education, the need for an effective opposition voice in parliament, and the quality of the candidates. (Source:wikipedia) I have listed five reasons why the PAP will continue to hang on in power even though it seems to have mess up a abit these days. A Weak Opposition Our opposition parties have now aggressively tried to recruit candidates for the next election. Some Singaporeans are also hoping that at least one GRC will fall to the opposition which is also unprecedented. I believe that winning at least a GRC for the opposition is possible with the current sentiments right now. The Worker’s Party had the best show in a GRC constituency with the hotly-contested  Aljunied GRC (145.141 voters) during the last election four years ago. For the record, the PAP won 74,843 votes (56.09%) whereas the Worker’s Party won 58,593 votes (43.91%) – not really a close call here. The Prime Minister’s Ang Mo Kio-Yio Chu Kang GRC was also contested in 2006 and received a rude shock when the opposition Workers’ Party young team polled a comforting 33% votes despite its’ lack of political experience. Moreover, the WP must be commended for winning a respectable 38% of the overall votes making it the next opposition party to watch in the next elections. More importantly, the PAP’s winning margin for the 2006 GE was greatly reduced from the 2001 elections’ 75% to 66.6%. It showed that within five years, the PAP’s popularity vote has slipped a shocking 8.4% and revealed that voters can change course if given the right circumstances. The after effects of globilisation and rising cost of living were the main topics for debate during that period. People were also also generally unhappy that the ruling party monopolized in parliament – a familiar key topic during elections campaigning. During the 2006 elections, PAP used a slew of budget goodies and threats of not upgrading future opposition wards to win over votes. The result went to show, through the reduced majority votes, that this strategy may not go down well with the general voting population. So, can the opposition seizes the advantage now given the hot button issue in foreign workers? Our opposition political parties could be the only one in the world that is incapable of forming a coalition government even if a freak result does occurs and the ruling party is being voted out through majority votes. Many voters simply just want them to win one or two more seats in addition to the two existing opposition members’ seats in Parliament. This is a sad phenomenon that needs to be changed. Our opposition parties need to convince the voters that they can do a good job when they are being voted amass into parliament. They can’t be seen as second-rate opposition hoping to only win one or two seats in the elections. They have to think big and more importantly act that they can do it. So far, they have not being able to generate enough confidence in the voters to cause them to vote otherwise. Many voters, I believe, have voted for the PAP grudgingly as they could not see that there is a better alternative choice. Too many seats were also left uncontested during past elections giving the feeling that the opposition is insipid and incapable. The elections are already lost when many voters do not have the chance to vote at all even though certain constituencies may be seen as sure-lose contest. By targetting certain selected constituencies for election contest and sending the ruling party into governance even before a vote is cast, the opposition is already admitting defeat before polling day. The ruling party needs to at least earn the right to form the next government even if it means sure defeat for many opposition candidates. The election experience will also do opposition candidates a world of good when they decide to stand for general elections in future. Our opposition needs to pull up their socks and unite together so that they can be a strong viable force to be reckoned with. As of now, they are merely splinter political groups that try to scrap for a win or two in Parliament. So, has our opposition political parties manage to create real confidence in the people’s heart to vote for them? I don’t think so. Our opposition parties’ performance have remained sublime at best. With only Chiam See Tong and Low Thia Khiang winning the elections so far, unfortunately, Singaporeans could not really see what the opposition can do in parliament. Of course, a controlled press is also not helping them very much in their cause. Our press has in fact done them much damage by publishing a lot of the opposition parties’ infighting and this has clouded their credibility in the eyes of the public. How this will affect their performance in the forthcoming elections remain unclear but it is certainly not helping them at all. Our opposition parties clearly could not work together and in-fighting is still there. I do not want to elaborate more on this here. All the publicized baggage has hurt them in the credibility compartment. If they could not get their act together as a team what confidence can Singaporeans have when they are voted into Parliament? Many Singaporeans tend to compare the ruling party’s scholarly-type squeaky clean candidates with those that the opposition parties paraded during elections. Abled well-educated Singaporeans need to stand up and join the opposition politics if they want to see changes in the country’s political climate. However, we all know that being a scholar does not mean that you can connect with the ground well and able to help the common folks. It takes a lot of heart and walking the talk to be a people’s leader. I rather have a taxi driver MP who can speak out for the people than someone who is well educated but could not really understand the issues that affect the common people. Singaporeans will want to feel that they have voted in the right candidates during an election even if they have hated the ruling party. They may prefer to spoil their votes if they feel that the opposition candidates are not up to the mark. Thus, the performance of a candidate during election campaigning is extremely crucial as if he can inspire confidence and speaks eloquently, he has every chance of winning his constituencies’ votes. Of course, there will be voters who will vote for any opposition party candidate that stands for elections in his ward. They are the die-hard anti-PAP voters and I believe that this group represents at least a massive 35% of the population. The real challenge is how can he win over the remaining 16% of the voters to ensure that he will win the elections at his constituency? Personally, I still feel that the opposition political parties need to tighten up and improve on its act. They need to find other innovative ways to let Singaporeans know what they have done and can do for Singapore. Many Singaporeans are clueless as to what the few opposition parties have being up to and what alternative strategies they can bring to the people. Many political parties now, fortunately, have harness the internet to publicise their activities and causes. This is a big step forward and hopefully Singaporeans will get to know more about the opposition parties from their websites and over time the voting public can feel confident enough to vote for the opposition. The latest parliamentary representation is summarized as follows and provided a snapshot how much ground the opposition has to cover in order to narrow the gap:   Leader Lee Hsien Loong Low Thia Khiang Chiam See Tong Party PAP WP SDA Leader since 2004 2001 2001 Leader's seat Ang Mo Kio GRC Hougang SMC Potong Pasir SMC Last election 82 seats, 75.3% 1 seat, 16.34% 1 seat + NCMP, 12.00% Seats won 82 1 + NCMP 1 Seat change ±0 ±0 ±0 Popular vote 747,860 183,604 145,902 Percentage 66.60% 16.34% 12.99% Swing -8.69% +13.30% +0.96%  Source: Wikipedia  To be continued in Part 2....   Other articles by Gilbert Goh: >> Upgrading out of employment: Is it possible? >> Eight reasons why foreign workers will be preferred over local ones   About the Author: Gilbert Goh blogs at transitioning.org, a support site for the unemployed and retrenched in Singapore. It is a non-profit registered societyproviding counselling and group activities free of charge to Singaporeans who need them. The above article was sent to us for publication and was initially published on Gilbert’s site.   EDITORS’ NOTE: Please join our Facebook discussion on this article here and invite your friends to do so as well to raise awareness among fellow Singaporeans.   Copyright © 2009 – 2010 The Temasek Review (If you are going to reproduce this article on your blog or forum, please provide a link back to ours)   Related articles: >> The scourge of personality-driven politics within the Singapore opposition >> Triggering the Singapore political tsunami with a highly motivated minority >> Singaporeans think highly of opposition’s chances in next general election >> What will happen to Singapore if the opposition wins the next general election >> Dr Ng Eng Hen welcomes greater contest from opposition >> Chee slammed again for introducing confrontational politics in Singapore >> Lim Hwee Hua: opposition “trying” to work the ground for next GE >> Let the next GE be a primer for Singapore’s own political tsunami >> Are opposition MPs becoming redundant in Singapore ? >> Why do we need so many strawberry PAP MPs in Parliament? >> PAP MPs complain of fast-pace of parliamentary debates >> Why PAP MPs are no more but a “wayang” >> A disaster in the making: PAP’s “instant tree” mentality >> Yes-men PAP MPs embarrassed themselves by saying instinctively “yes” to wrongly reduce budget  Read More →

According to an article published in The Economist last week, Singapore properties are 19.6 percent overvalued. The result is hardly surprising given the sky-rocketing prices of both public housing and private properties. (read article here) "Singapore has gone from being one of the most depressed housing markets in the third quarter of 2009 to being the second-frothiest in the three months to March. This effervescence clearly worries its government, which has made it more difficult for buyers to delay mortgage payments and taken steps to deter speculative purchases," it reported. Since the gradual recovery of the economy last year, the Singapore property market has rebounded strongly led by the public housing sector. The prices of resale flats grew by 8.2 percent last year with median Cash-Over-Valuation doubling from $12,000 to $24,000 in the last quarter alone. The return of foreigners into the Singapore has helped jump-start a moribund market paralyzed by the global financial crisis. They form about 70 percent of buyers in the private property sector and 20 percent in the public housing market. The escalating prices led to fears of the emergence of a property bubble which prompted the government to introduce a series of measures to curb speculation in the market. Despite the initiatives taken, the prices continue to grow albeit at a lower rate. Of late, government leaders have called on Singaporeans not to sell their HDB flats for a quick buck and there were talks about locking the profits from the sale of flats in the sellers' CPF to discourage them from selling their flats. It remains to be seen if the red-hot Singapore property market will cool down in the months ahead as the economy is set to grow by more than 5 percent this year.   Please join our Facebook discussion on this article here and invite your friends to do so as well to raise awareness among fellow Singaporeans.  Read More →

By SONIA KOLESNIKOV-JESSOP from New York Times, 9 April 2010 For some time now, China’s property market has looked like a bubble about to pop. As a result, many Chinese have been putting their wealth into real estate markets further afield, notably in Singapore. The Chinese ranked No. 3 among foreign buyers here in 2009, making 15 percent of all foreign purchases, according to Chua Chor Hoon, head of Southeast Asia research at the property consultancy DTZ Debenham Tie Leung. That share of foreign purchases, which totaled only 8 percent as recently as 2005, put the Chinese just behind Indonesian buyers, who held the No. 2 spot. Malaysians led the rankings. And China’s rising impact on the market looks set to continue this year. Read rest of article here  Read More →