TR EMERITUS

By Abdul Gafoor, Social Correspondent When Pahlavi Shah's neglect of the Iranian people grew worse in the late 60s and early 70s, it resulted in the growth of various forms of dissident groups. There were communists, socialists, leftists and Islamists. As Pahlavi Shah and his control machine was all too powerful, the various dissident groups were united on one objective which was to oust the Shah. Given the numbers and popularity the Islamists rose to become the principal force in ousting the Shahs and they formed the next government. As mentioned in the earlier article, the severe deterioration of socio-economic conditions of people in Singapore has led to so many variety of dissident groups being born in the last few years. Today we have the queer groups, leftists, democrats, socialists, worker activists, reformists and Christian right. The last group has indeed rattled PAP that even the PM made them the main topic of national day rally speech. Just like how the various dissident groups in Iran during the late 1970s converged with a common goal to oust the government, there does seem to be a trend of slow convergence amongst the various dissident groups in Singapore which is expected to gain pace in five to ten years time during which time as MM Lee predicted they are likely to create a political tsunami at the 2021 elections. The interesting question is which group is likely to rise to the top to form the government then. Given the trend of religious ritualism (which i will not define as religiousity nor as spirituality) increasing rapidly amongst Singaporeans, there is a strong likelihood that we may see the emergence of religion based parties within now and ten years time. These parties are likely to be an Islamic party inspired by PAS, Hindu party inspired by Hindraf and Buddhist party inspired by the recent uprising of Burmese Buddhist monks who are likely to re-emerge again in time to come. One can expect these three parties to form a coalition with the Christian Right party/parties. In other words in the 2021 election, the defining moment of post 1965 electoral history will be likely to be shaped by the victory of a coalition of religion based parties in very much similarity of how the Islamic clerics ousted the Shah in 1979. Democratic parliamentary elections are all about popularity and such a coalition without doubt can garner at least 50% of the votes. Leftists, socialists, queer groups, reformists, democrats, labour activists, womens groups etc could emerge as a potential another coalition but this coalition represent the interests of at the most a quarter of the population. Should such an outcome materialise in 2021 election, the PAP will be convinced to send in the army and/or influence senior public servants not to cooperate with the new government. We can then see a similar turbulent transition as what we see in Thailand and Malaysia today. However in those two countries, the aftermath of the turbulent times is likely to be a normalisation. However in the case of Singapore, we are more likely to see the political turbulence to be prolonged like in Iran. This whole analysis that I am putting forth can only be vaildated by time. My purpose is not put forth a sensational picture of what could happen. I simply want to illustrate the undesirable high risks that country with underdeveloped political system faces in long term if it blindly only focuses on short term political stability. Some idiosyncratic political observers may boast about 50 years of single party rule in Singapore being a source of political stability, failing to realize itself is a source of political instability for the next 50 years. When Pahlavi Shah's neglect of the Iranian people grew worse in the late 60s and early 70s, it resulted in the growth of various forms of dissident groups. There were communists, socialists, leftists and Islamists. As Pahlavi Shah and his control machine was all too powerful, the various dissident groups were united on one objective which was to oust the Shah. Given the numbers and popularity the Islamists rose to become the principal force in ousting the Shahs and they formed the next government. As mentioned in the earlier article, the severe deterioration of socio-economic conditions of people in Singapore has led to so many variety of dissident groups being born in the last few years. Today we have the queer groups, leftists, democrats, socialists, worker activists, reformists and Christian right. The last group has indeed rattled PAP that even the PM made them the main topic of national day rally speech. Just like how the various dissident groups in Iran during the late 1970s converged with a common goal to oust the government, there does seem to be a trend of slow convergence amongst the various dissident groups in Singapore which is expected to gain pace in five to ten years time during which time as MM Lee predicted they are likely to create a political tsunami at the 2021 elections. The interesting question is which group is likely to rise to the top to form the government then. Given the trend of religious ritualism (which i will not define as religiousity nor as spirituality) increasing rapidly amongst Singaporeans, there is a strong likelihood that we may see the emergence of religion based parties within now and ten years time. These parties are likely to be an Islamic party inspired by PAS, Hindu party inspired by Hindraf and Buddhist party inspired by the recent uprising of Burmese Buddhist monks who are likely to re-emerge again in time to come. One can expect these three parties to form a coalition with the Christian Right party/parties. In other words in the 2021 election, the defining moment of post 1965 electoral history will be likely to be shaped by the victory of a coalition of religion based parties in very much similarity of how the Islamic clerics ousted the Shah in 1979. Democratic parliamentary elections are all about popularity and such a coalition without doubt can garner at least 50% of the votes. Leftists, socialists, queer groups, reformists, democrats, labour activists, womens groups etc could emerge as a potential another coalition but this coalition represent the interests of at the most a quarter of the population. Should such an outcome materialise in 2021 election, the PAP will be convinced to send in the army and/or influence senior public servants not to cooperate with the new government. We can then see a similar turbulent transition as what we see in Thailand and Malaysia today. However in those two countries, the aftermath of the turbulent times is likely to be a normalisation. However in the case of Singapore, we are more likely to see the political turbulence to be prolonged like in Iran. This whole analysis that I am putting forth can only be vaildated by time. My purpose is not put forth a sensational picture of what could happen. I simply want to illustrate the undesirable high risks that country with underdeveloped political system faces in long term if it blindly only focuses on short term political stability. Some idiosyncratic political observers may boast about 50 years of single party rule in Singapore being a source of political stability, failing to realize itself is a source of political instability for the next 50 years. About the Author: Abdul Gafoor is a researcher based in the United Kingdom  Read More →

Written by Our Correspondent Minister for Community Development, Youth and Sports Vivian Balakrishnan urged Singaporeans yesterday to "rally" behind the inaugural Youth Olympic Games (YOG) to be held in Singapore soon in order to make it a success. Dr Vivian had expressed concerns that the  YOG fever has yet to sweep the nation with only 150 days to go. This is hardly surprising as Singaporeans are in no mood to welcome the YOG. Though Singapore is now technically out of recession, the economic reality on the ground remains grim. While the cost of living has sky-rocketed, especially that of public housing, the wages of Singaporeans have not kept pace with inflation. The real earnings of local workers (including PRs) had decreased by 3.2 percent last year even as the PAP ministers look set to receive a hefty 8.8 percent pay hike. Dr Vivian seems to be living in an ivory tower and remains blind to the hardships and sufferings of ordinary Singaporeans. "We need every Singaporean to understand that this is not just about sports or young people - it's for all Singaporeans.....'All the effort that we invest in this will be wasted if every Singaporean doesn't feel that this is a once-in-a-lifetime (event), that the Olympic flame is going to come to Singapore in such a close way and isn't touched by it or affected by the Olympic spirit one way or another," he was quoted as saying in the Straits Times. Dr Vivian stressed that the "goal" is now to recreate the buzz: "We've got to find ways for the hawkers, for the taxi drivers, the bus drivers, the small and medium enterprises to take advantage of this wonderful opportunity to showcase their products and their services to the world," he added. The goal of Dr Vivian and MCYS is to ensure that all Singaporeans are sufficiently clothed and fed. Though Singapore is the second richest country in Asia after Japan, Singaporeans enjoy few social welfare benefits from its miserly PAP government which exhorts them to work for as long as they can well into their golden years till they drop dead while being “faster, cheaper and better” at the same time. When asked by MP Lily Neo in 2007 to increase the monthly PA allowance so that its recipients can have three basic meals a day, Minister for Community, Youth and Sports Dr Vivian Balakrishnan retorted: “How much do you want? Do you want three meals in a hawker centre, food court or restaurant?” He added that “one limiting factor must be the sum that we give through public assistance cannot be so generous as to erode the work ethic.” [Source: Channel News Asia, 9 March 2007] It was revealed that there were only 11 successful PA applicants between July 2008 and Deccember 2009. MCYS said that the low numbers showed that Singaporeans want to be as "self-reliant" as much as possible. Dr Vivian Balakrishnan costs Singapore taxpayers about $1.9 million dollars a year or $5,278 dollars a day. When your correspondent completed typing this article after 20 minutes, he would be $100 richer.   EDITORS' NOTE: Please join our Facebook page here and invite your friends to do so to help us exceed the number of fans on the YPAP Facebook page.  Read More →

作者:费言20/03/2010 我们李资政20年前讲过一句很令人感动的话： “如果你有机会到邻国地区走走，回到新加坡机场，你就会感动得大吻这块土地！” 时代改变了，人们要求不同了，我怀疑，有些到过邻国甚至世界其他国家的人，回来了，可能不一定会大吻新加坡的土地，也许，下了机场，会大吐口水也不一定呢？ 我说的不一定对，不过，除了读书赚吃之外，老李的确没有教会新加坡人另一些必要的东西。就如对于我们的年轻一代吧，除了教会他们要珍惜这块土地和眼前利益， 也应该别忘了教会他们，如果万一有一天出现了一个无良政府，这个社会发生了他们认为什么不公不义的事，他们都要敢于出来抗争抗议，敢于组织上街示威抗争， 就如50年前充满正义感的年轻李资政那样，无私无畏，义无反顾，不畏强权和艰险，投身到反殖的社会大洪流里面，而不是除了傻傻亲吻土地，其他一概都人云亦 云，天真无知，除了利益和饭碗，一概明哲保身，不敢知不敢理，不敢参与？ 我们李资政都警告过了，如果有一天，出现了一个不负责任的政府或反对党，企图把新加坡的1000亿储备花光吃光败光，新加坡人应该怎么办？难道就人人噤若寒蝉，他们难道敢上街去示威吗？ 所以，那天我的泰国老友传了点有趣的资料，我突发奇想，觉得我们的各政府部门，私人团体，政党青年团，都应该组织学习考察团，到泰国去，学习人家怎么示威！ 【曼谷完美的示威服务】 根据我老友的资料，曼谷红衫军最近的示威，有几大创意。 一、发明了人工捐血，血淋血洗总理署大门，这在全球的示威活动中还属首创。 二、曼谷市政府为示威活动提供的服务，专业而贴心得令人越来越喜欢这种有意义，有趣而安全的活动。 下面列出一个示威服务清单来看看： 根据曼谷市长素坤攀亲王透露，市政府为示威活动做好了完善的准备。 为了给红衫军和军警提供诸多参与示威的便利服务，市政府为活动准备了550个饮水大桶，80间临时厕所，424辆消防车，61辆流动发电机（供夜间发电），200个清洁工人，17辆清洁喷水车，9辆垃圾车，每天清理37吨垃圾。 在医疗救伤安全照顾上，共有十几家医院和民间救护团体，提供数百辆救护车在示威活动周围6个地点守护随时待命运转伤亡，几天来，因天气太热，连日示威疲劳过度，共有255示威者接受医疗服务。卫生部长朱林，在示威前已经忙着巡视各医院和检讨急救状态，将救急戒备提到最高的第3级，曼谷邻近周边的47家医院， 共准备了1651张病床，准备血浆5366袋，准备在示威冲突时有人伤亡时使用。 另外，旅游局也在主要游客区的街道，设立24个游客询问服务台，随时帮游客解决他们因示威受到影响时给与协助。 另外，阿比昔首相也伸出橄榄枝，承诺政府会免费提供交通载送车辆，给任何要回家的示威者回到家乡的任何城市。 如果把这些“顶级享受示威服务”介绍到新加坡来，人们不禁要惊呼，那不是要鼓励新加坡人，学泰国人，台湾人，印尼人那样，天天不做工，天天上街示威吗？ 【学习示威与提供示威服务的重要性】 记 得有人对64天安门事件悲剧作过检讨，认为其中一个致命的问题在于，中共政府完全缺乏处理民众示威的经验，更糟糕的是，竟然严重缺乏对付示威者的硬件和工 具，例如对付示威暴动的水泡车，警察没有配备镇暴车，护身盾牌，催泪弹，解放军没有塑胶子弹。。。。。所以，一镇压清场，就出动坦克车，一开枪，就是 AK47真枪实弹，结果造成数千人无辜死伤。令许多人质疑的是，要把学生驱散，把天安门清场，需要动用坦克和真枪实弹吗？后面发生了什么事？有什么见不得人的阴谋？ 这个人民政府，做梦都想不到，他们有一天，需要出动军队和坦克在首都的天安门去对付手无寸铁的示威学生。 示威者当然也有他们一定的诉求，大部分的示威活动，就如示威这两个字，就是表达一种不满和情绪，倒不一定有什么你死我活，同归于尽的决心，许多时候，就是极端粗暴的军警，和被激怒完全失去理性而不顾死活的示威者产生冲突，把和平的示威表态活动演变成严重流血的悲剧。 我想，组织和参与示威的人，要学习，镇压示威的当权者，也应该学习，任何一个社会，任何一个政府，都有引起不满问题和政策的时候，所以，任何民主社会的宪法里都明确规定，人民享有示威表态的权力，法律必须保障人民的示威自由与权力。假设一个社会永远没有示威活动，或者希望制止一个社会永远不发生示威活动，那 是鸵鸟政策，要知道，一个有气的缸，你捂得太紧，就更容易产生爆炸。 我想，我们的教育部，应该组织考察学习团，到常有示威的国家去考察学 习。不只让学生有机会亲身体验人家的社会真实，也让学生以真实实地和教材上一课民主课程，学习什么是民主社会，为什么需要举行示威？为什么人家可以示威， 我们不可以示威？人家需要示威，我们不需要示威？有一天，这个国家社会需要你上街示威抗议的时候，你应该怎么做？ 我们的军警部门，内政部门，卫生部门，甚至总理到各部长市长议员，有机会，都应该去实地学习上一课示威课，不要假设这个社会永远不会发生示威活动。如果有一天新加坡发生示威，除了派军警去镇压，我们的政府部门认为，他们应该提供给示威者和公众怎么样的服务呢？ 像我们徐顺全博士在街上卖几本反动书籍，在街上和几个人走几圈喊几声，就被当成妨碍公共次序而告上法庭，坐牢14天。这样没水准的示威水平，被人家泰国人、 台湾人、韩国人看了，真会笑掉大牙啦！警察的无知和过敏，每次都无辜地让新加坡被人家形容为有如缅甸、北朝鲜那样恐怖的专制国家，何苦来哉？ 去邻国走走比较，觉得自己幸运生在新加坡，回到机场，可以大吻新加坡的土地。到邻国看看，如果觉得应该学习人家示威，也不要找尽一堆借口。 如何维护一个民主公正的社会国家，如何做个独立思考的公民，过着民主自由的生活，也是需要学习的。 来源：大马论坛  Read More →