TR EMERITUS

OPINION There was much discussion and debate lately on the economic problems faced by Singapore now and in the future. The measures outlined in the Budget announced lately by Finance Minister Tharman only deal with the "symptoms" of the problem and not the root cause. Though Singapore is now technically a first world developed economy, it has yet to make the transition from a manufacturing-based to a knowledge-based technologically advanced economy. Due to our heavy dependence on MNCs, we need to keep labor costs down to prevent them from relocating elsewhere. However, time is fast running out for Singapore as China, India and Vietnam catch up with us. We can never compete with them in terms of cheap labor which they have in abundance. Yet, Singapore's lackluster SME sector is still unable to wean off its perennial addiction to foreign workers and measures taken to boost productivity will not succeed unless wholesale changes are made to revamp the entire political economy. 1. Obsolete political system meant to perpetuate PAP's political hegemony forever: The root cause of Singapore's economic woes lies in its political system which is engineered to keep the PAP in power forever, as admitted unwittingly by Law Minister Shanmugam himself when he spoke of the need to have a "strong and effective" party in place to lead Singapore last year and corroborated by Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong earlier who revealed unashamedly that a one-party system is the only ideal political system in Singapore due to the lack of talents. And of course, let us not forget his infamous speech in 2006 when he threatened to "fix" the opposition if more of them were to get elected into parliament. PM Lee clearly does not understand or appreciate the importance of checks and balances in the system. To put it succinctly, when the government is "strong", the citizenry will be "weak" and vice versa. A "strong" government may be crucial in the formative years of Singapore's development but is now becoming a major obstacle as its economy becomes developed when the private sector should spear-head the economic growth like in the other Asian Tigers and not the state which is ill-equipped to do so. In Singapore, the nanny state plays all the four roles simultaneously - managerial, regulatory, financing and sponsorship, leaving a feeble, unimaginative and weak citizenry which lacks the qualities to survive, let alone thrive in a new knowledge-based economy. 2. Control of the economy via sovereign wealth funds and government-linked companies: To ensure that the PAP is kept in power forever, control of Singapore's economy is absolutely essential without which the emergence of an independent commercial class will press for changes in the political landscape. Singapore's two sovereign wealth funds GIC and Temasek Holdings are controlled indirectly by the PAP, the former is chaired by its octogenarian leader Lee Kuan Yew and the latter by his daughter-in-law Ho Ching. Temasek Holding in turn, own stakes in major Singapore companies such as DBS, Capitaland and SIA. The access to public funds give these companies an unfair advantage over its domestic competitors. These gigantic state-linked companies also employ large number of Singaporeans together with the civil service thereby helping to keep the citizenry subversient as they tend to vote for the ruling party out of fear of losing their jobs or missing out on promotion if they fail to do so. It is hardly surprisingly that quite a number of civil servants and staff of pseudo-PAP organizations like NTUC and Town Councils are card-carrying members of the PAP and grassroots leaders as well. 3. Weak SME sector: Due to the presence of heavy-weights supported by the state which controls more than half of Singapore's domestic economy, Singapore's SME sector is very weak compared to Hong Kong, Taiwan and South Korea. SMEs in Singapore doomed to remain "small" and have few chances of emerging from the shadows of these GLCs. Even Singapore's only internationally recognized brand name Creative Technologies is founded in the United States and not in Singapore. Taiwan has Acer, BenQ, TSM, South Korea has Samsung, LG and Hyundai. What about Singapore? According to prominent U.S. political economist Professor Huang Yasheng, "Singapore and Malaysia had weaker domestic firms in part due to a deliberate governmental bias against private local firms, mainly in the 1960s and 1970s, so foreign firms held a more substantial relative advantage. But in Taiwan, the government provided a sponsorship and financing role, not a managerial role as in Singapore and Malaysia. Capital in Taiwan and Hong Kong went to the most efficient firms, including small, start-up entrepreneurial firms, and was not based on the political or ethnic status of such firms." (Source: Harvard Business School) 4. Lack of entrepreneurial spirit and flair among Singaporeans: The insular political system and rigid education system in Singapore do not foster independent-thinking, creativity and entrepreneurship among Singaporeans as these attributes require an environment which allow for critical thinking and questioning of authorities to develop and thrive. Many Singapore students are only contented to secure a stable job upon graduation. Few will dare to start new ventures on their own. The situation is further exacerbated by the government offering scholarships to bright college students which deprive the private sector of the talents it so desperately needs. Though Singapore has one of the most educated workforce in the world, Singaporeans are ill-suited for a knowledge-based economy which require a completely different mindset altogether. To quote from Professor Huang Yasheng again: "Extremely attractive compensation packages in the public sector also mean that the most talented people in Singapore want to work for the government. The private sector is far less lucrative and attracts lesser talents. In the long run, this will be detrimental to the development of a vibrant private sector in Singapore." (Source: Harvard Business School) 5. Chronic dependence on foreign direct investments: Being an export-based economy of which manufacturing still forms a major component, Singapore is heavily dependent on MNCs for investments and of course the bottomline of these companies is profits which necessitates large number of foreign workers to keep labor costs low. The above five factors explain the anomalies and asymmetries prevalent in Singapore's economic system and performance: 1. Impressive GDP growth averaging 5 percent per annum: Singapore has averaged between 3 - 8 percent growth during the past decade saved for the recession year of 2008, an impressive figure for a developed economy. This is made possible by the PAP's liberal immigration policies which allow Singapore companies to hire cheap foreign workers easily, thereby keeping labor costs down while boosting the output and hence GDP at the same time. Unfortunately, the growth is not fueled by gains in productivity nor innovation and research and is likely to slow down in the near future as companies relocate to cheaper destinations elsewhere. 2. Low productivity rates: A detailed report released by the U.S. department of labor last year revealed that Singapore saw the steepest decline among 17 developed countries in productivity at a massive 6.6 percent in 2008. Productivity rates had been decreasing for the last three years and it averaged only 0.7 percent for the past decade. This unusual phenomenon can be attributed chiefly to the easy availability of foreign labor which discourages companies to invest in innovation to boost productivity. (read article here) 3. Stagnant wages: Due to the relentless influx of foreign workers, the median wages of ordinary Singaporeans have remained stagnant at $2,600 for the last decade. The median household income actually saw a decrease by 3 percent to about $4,700 last year. This is hardly surprising as the PAP's ultra-liberal labor policies do not contain any safeguards to protect the interests of Singapore workers unlike in Australia, Hong Kong and Taiwan. Foreigners are allowed to compete with Singaporeans directly who are naturally disadvantaged by their comparative higher labor costs and National Service obligations for the males. 4. Low domestic purchasing power: As a result of stagnant wages and high inflation rate caused partly by the inflow of foreigners, Singaporeans have the lowest domestic purchasing power among the Asian Tigers though they live in the second richest country in Asia by GDP per capita. According to a landmark UBS study last year, Singaporeans have a low purchasing power of only 39.9, comparable to Kuala Lumpur (39.5), Warsaw (34.0) and Bogota (33.7). Other countries in the Asia-Pacific region which are ahead of us are Tokyo (82.2), Auckland (68.9), Taipei (58.9), Hong Kong (58.1) and Seoul (57.4). (read article here) 5. Highest income gap among developed countries: The lop-sided economic policies of the PAP only benefit the rich and well-connected businessmen and not ordinary Singaporeans. Employers are the ultimate beneficiaries of the easy availability of cheap foreign workers which keep business costs down and increase their profit margins. On the other hand, the wages of Singaporeans are depressed artificially by the presence of foreign workers. As a result, the rich becomes richer while the poor becomes poorer leading to a very unequal society. Singapore's income gap has widened considerably in the last decade and is the highest among the thirty most developed economies in the world after Hong Kong. 6. Low standards of living: Though Singapore is technically a first world developed country, the majority of Singaporeans do not enjoy a quality of life commensurate with citizens of an economically advanced nation due to low wages and domestic purchasing power, stressful lifestyle, high cost of living, especially that of public housing which erodes savings leaving little for retirement, the lack of a comprehensive social safety net and basic political freedoms. Singapore is ranked a pathetic 70th position by Irish lifestyle magazine International Living and 53th position by the Economist Unit in terms of quality of life in the world, below Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and even some developing countries like Slovenia, Croatia and of all places, Romania. Moving ahead or behind? Singapore is now at a crossroads. We cannot afford to continue growing on the back of cheap foreign labor for long as it is inevitable that other countries like China, India and Vietnam will soon catch up with us leading to an exodus of MNCs. We need a complete revamp and restructuring of the economy to make the transformation instead of half-hearted cosmetic changes which will not address the underlying cause of the malaise. The PAP knows exactly where the problem lies, but it is unable or unwilling to relinquish control of Singapore's economy because doing so will be tantamount to dismantling its own power support base. In a recent speech made at the Civil Service College, prominent MIT political economist Professor Huang Yasheng urged Singapore to “rethink” its state management model which has “milked this system for all it is worth.” “The private sector is the best way to grow the economy. It has the most productive, most innovative and entrepreneurial culture. The state-owned enterprise system doesn’t give you that….You are already hitting the wall. Retaining this strategy could mean sacrificing future growth that is possible only through a bigger, more dynamic private sector,” he said. He also opined that Singapore should expand its private sector in order to compete with China and India: “Maybe a better way is for the government to fund more basic research and then allow universities, private equity firms, venture capital firms and rich individuals to take care of the rest. That is because even when the state sector is well managed, it is not as innovative as the private sector, he says. From a technological development point of view, you need a bigger private sector to compete, to come up with new products, processes and technologies, to better compete with India and China.” Without liberalizing both the economy and political landscape to allow for freedom of speech, independent and critical thinking and innovation to thrive, Singapore can never hope to compete with the likes of Hong Kong, South Korea and Taiwan. Singapore risks becoming an economic basket-case if it does not overhaul its economic system in the next 20 years or so - the income gap will continue to widen, the exodus of young Singaporeans to greener pastures elsewhere will increase and they will be replaced by new immigrants from China, India and other countries, the birth rates will plummet as citizens reconsider their futures, the erosion of national identity will worsen and eventually we will lose our sovereignty and becoming either a dependency of China or reunite with Malaysia again. The only solution in sight is to privatize Temasek Holdings and GIC and channel its returns to a pension fund for Singaporeans, dismantle the GLC system and remove the "deadwoods", allow for freedom of speech and assembly, liberalize the media completely to allow new players to emerge, reform the electoral system and abolish the GRC system to permit genuine political competition and multi-party politics and lastly to institutionalize a system of checks and balances and clear separation of powers between the executive and legislative branches of the government. The transition period may be painful, but without changing with times, Singapore is doomed to fade into oblivion sooner rather than later. The PAP is not only part of the problem, but the root cause of the economic woes and uncertainties we are facing right now. Without reforming the political system, we can never make the necessary changes to our economy which will soon consign us to the rubbish bins of history. Copyright © The Temasek Review.   Related articles: 1. U.S. Labor dept: Singapore has steepest productivity decline 2. How PAP screws up Singapore’s labor productivity by opening its doors to foreign workers 3. Singapore has the lowest wages and domestic spending purchasing power among the Asian Tigers 4. Moving towards a Russian standard of living 5. Why Singaporeans are paupers in a first world economy 6. The Singapore Way 7. DPM Teo Chee Hean praises Singapore government for progress made in past productivity drives 8. Pitching the case for genuine democracy in Singapore  Read More →

Written by Our Correspondent Following the footsteps of 15 year old Kenneth Lin who set up a Facebook group asking PAP's strongman Lee Kuan Yew to apologize for his disparaging remarks made about Singaporeans, another young Singaporean has stood up and voiced her disagreement with the ruling party's policies. Temasek Junior College student Nur Sakinha Rahmat has set up a Facebook group asking Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong to take a train ride with her to see for himself how crowded it is: The description of the group reads: "Our government has plans to increase our population to 6.5 million. Granted out current transport, as well as living, conditions, how feasible will this plan be? I have one simple request; can the cabinet ministers please board the MRT at peak hour, squeezing with everyone in the carriages, before they make their decision?" The group has attracted more than 200 members so far. Lee Kuan Yew had earlier said in an interview with the Straits Times that he knew that Singaporeans are unhappy with the crowding in buses and MRT trains and promise to "slow down" the inflow of foreigners. The ruling party's liberal immigration and pro-foreigner policies have sparked widespread discontent, unhappiness and anger among Singaporeans from all age groups from the very young to the very old. Soon after Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong assumed his position in 2003, he announced his ambitious plan to increase Singapore's population to 6.5 million people by 2030. All of sudden, the floodgates were flung open to foreigners without making the adequate preparations to cope with the expected increase in population. Only 11,000 HDB flats were built between the years 2006 - 2008 when there were more than 90,000 PRs and 20,000 new citizens in the year 2008 alone resulting in the sky-rocketing prices we see today. Buses and MRT trains are overcrowded during peak hours with passengers packed like sardines. COEs of cars continue to shoot through the roof, exacerbated by rich PRs and new citizens entering an already saturated market. According to a recent Wall Street Journal editorial, the relentless influx of foreigners into Singapore over the last few years has depressed the wages of ordinary Singaporeans, increased the cost of living, especially that of public housing, decreased labor productivity and led to an overall decline in the standards of living. Nur Sakinha's request is likely to fall on deaf ears - how can she expect the world's richest ministers to board a MRT train meant for "lesser mortals" during the peak hours? A more feasible way is for her to create awareness among her peers and vote out the PAP when she is eligible to vote.  Read More →

I refer to the leeching MP Ong Ah Heng's comment in the Parliament yesterday. He said in Mandarin: 'I know of one family who complain the cleaners in their precinct are lazy and too old. They don't want local workers who are old, they want young foreigners.' His comment was posted in the internet today here. 1. How can an MP conclude such a sweeping statement that our old local cleaners are lazy by hearing just from one family's complaint. The family must be the Lee family. I stand here to contradict him that when I saw those old Ah Pehs and Ah Mahs scurried around in the food courts for hours cleaning up the tables, my tears just wanted to flow out  from my eyes. How on earth can anyone label them as lazy. 2. How can our old local cleaners be lazy when they continue to work hard jobs at old age. My friend's retired parents from China were really surprised to see so many old Singaporeans  in their 70's and 80's still working as cleaners and toilet attendants. My friend's parents are only in their late 50's. They said that in Asia, especially for the chinese culture, it is really inhumane for a family to let their elderly parents continue working at such old age. They added that young Singaporeans must be very unfilial. 3. These old workers may be slow but definitely not lazy. Slow they must because they are old. Ong Ah Heng must be expecting that all Singaporeans must work like a slave, even at their old age. Mind you, Ong Ah Heng, not many old people can command million dollars salary a year by just using his mouth to work as forecaster. I think Ong Ah Heng should publicly apologize for snubbing our local old workers. CHE  Read More →