TR EMERITUS

I remember discussing Singapore’s development strategy with my Economics Director of Studies at Cambridge University, Professor Ajit Singh, in 1983. He said Singapore had pursued a similar strategy to Ireland, though he thought rather less successfully. I have made the same comparison many times in my blog. Both countries have sought to attract multinational investment and the relocation of corporate HQs to their countries through a low corporate tax rate and sweetheart deals with new investors. Economists, have pointed out for some time that because of its pivotal role in the tax avoidance strategies of many, particularly US, MNCs, Ireland’s GDP is not an accurate reflection of the real size of the Irish economy. Neither are its growth rates. Ireland’s GDP shot up by 24.5% in 2015, which led Paul Krugman to famously call it “leprechaun economics.” It shot up a further 15% in 2021 when the growth rate in the Eurozone of which Ireland is a member was only 5.9%. A recent Economist article discussed the current thinking about what amendments might need to be made to better reflect the true size of Ireland’s economy. In the past looking at Gross National Income (GNI), which excludes income due to foreigners but includes income from abroad, might have been sufficient. But this no longer works because now so many US MNCs have moved their legal headquarters to Ireland. They say a crude solution might be just to exclude sectors of the economy that are dominated by large multinationals. But this would be too radical as these sectors do contribute something to output and employment. They suggest two alternatives. The first is domestic demand-consumer and government spending as well as investment, but excluding exports and imports. This is called Modified Domestic Demand and is already reported. But this has drawbacks, not least the exclusion of international trade. A second and better measure according to The Economist would be a modified version of GNI called GNI*. This excludes the retained earnings of firms that have moved their HQ to Ireland but includes international trade. Using GNI* as a measure the Irish economy’s size is only £249 billion while in terms of GDP it is worth £475 billion. The PAP Government follows much the same strategy as Ireland to use low corporate taxes and sweetheart deals with individual MNCs to attract investment and persuade companies to put regional HQs in Singapore. Economic growth, like Ireland’s has also been very rapid in certain years, like 2010 and 2011 when the economy grew by 10% and 6% respectively. The Statistics Department already calculates GNI and publishes the statistic on a per capita basis. It’s about 84% of the GDP level. However it would be interesting if the Statistics Department were to calculate GNI* for Singapore. The real size of the Irish economy on this measure is only slightly over half of that measured by GDP. It’s entirely possible that a calculation of Singapore’s GNI* would yield similar results. This would destroy the PAP’s triumphalist narrative which has always touted the size of Singapore’s GDP as a counter to any criticisms of its repressive rule. However, while they might feel pride in hearing that Singapore’s GDP has significantly surpassed Malaysia’s, a country with 6 times the population, most Singaporeans know that they are not six times as rich. In fact a UBS survey of global cities back in 2011 placed the purchasing power of Singaporean median wages as on a par with those in KL and it would not surprise me if they were still fairly similar today. Rather than looking at misleading measures of GDP per capita on a purchasing-power-parity basis which place Singapore first or second in the world, Singaporeans should look at the reality of wages per hour worked which for many are well below minimum wages in other countries which rank much lower in the table and median wages which range between a half to a quarter of those in cities in North America and northern Europe. At election time it would be better if they remembered the latter fact rather than being bamboozled by PAP disinformation.   Kenneth Jeyaretnam   About the author: I’m a Singaporean economist who became an opposition activist. I blog to provide an alternative to the porkies that the Pinkies tell. It just so happens that my alternative is the truth. That’s why I’ve never been sued in any civil or criminal court no matter how hard hitting my criticism. I’m quoted and interviewed and asked to speak across the world but largely censored in Singapore in an effort to silence my political opinions. The left hate me because they think I split their vote and because I eschew their outmoded economic models. Models that don’t work. The Right and the Conservatives hate me because I’m a liberal. I’m not sure what the middle think of me. I don’t think there are more than a handful of people in the middle, here in Singapore. I’m a Singaporean born and bred, dual heritage, my parents Singaporean established here before the State of Singapore was created. I’m not Eurasian. I read economics at Cambridge and could be broadly described as from the Keynesian school but I believe in interventions. I was formerly a successful hedge fund manager. After economics and politics my greatest interests are history, film and Makan. I run but I run so I can eat like a Singaporean.      Read More →

It's been almost a month since we completed all the necessary upgrades on our TR Emeritus (TRE) to resolve the EOL issues. Since visitors from a different locale may have an entirely different experience on TRE, we would like to ask if you are having any issues browsing our website. Is the delivery speed acceptable, are the advertisements appropriate, etc? Please provide any feedback on any negative experience that you may have so we can improve TRE. Thank you for your continued support.   Team@TRE      Read More →

I am extremely shocked by the Obituary of Shin Leong early in the morning. He was younger than me at 47 yrs old. I had just dreamt of a coffin and a funeral yesterday morning but didn't know who was inside. Now I know. I got to know Shin Leong in 2001, when he called me and asked to meet up. He was going through the membership file of Workers Party then and found my record. Strictly speaking, it was Shin Leong who was the final catalyst that brought me into active political activism. Shin Leong was the youngest among the new group of WP leaders of 2001 to 2006 era. I regard this period as Political Renaissance of Workers Party. He was the most energetic and active member of WP, basically working full time for the party. He was the defacto runner for Mr. Low Thia Khiang and Worker's Party. Shin Leong helped Sylvia Lim to canvass for votes in order to get her elected as Chairman, replacing Dr Tan Beng Seng. It was a period of great tension between the veterans and young new blood. However I would regard this as the necessary growing pain for an organization. Nothing personal. In fact Dr Tan Beng Seng was still very supportive of Shin Leong both in his entrepreneurship venture as well as his 2006 GE contest in Ang Mo Kio GRC. A lot of things happened between 2001 and GE2006. Shin Leong helped WP to recruit quite a number of people within a short period of time. He was a sweet talker with great persuasion. WP would not grow that rapidly with lots of new young blood within that short span of time if it was not for Shin Leong's relentless efforts. Due to his recruitment efforts, he had also built up his strength in the party. While garnering great support base and influence among those whom he had recruited, he was able to connect well to the veterans as well. However, the tension between Low Thia Khiang and Shin Leong built up due to several incidents just months before GE2006. Unknown to many people, WP was going through real tough teething time during this period. I didn't join any of the factions or groups but I was mistakenly seen or regarded as Low Thia Khiang's man. I wasn't really so. I was just myself. If you asked me who was I closest to, I would say it's Goh Seng Soon, not Thia Khiang. That became a problem between Shin Leong and me. During one of the Hammer sales outreach, Shin Leong walked up to me in a car park and left me a remark, "Meng Seng, you are really a political animal, you are good to get the support of the veterans in such a short time". I was quite stunned to hear that from Shin Leong. Apparently he has regarded me as his "competitor". But later, I realized it was because of the formation of the Aljunied GRC team, they have decided to put me in as one of the team member instead of Shin Leong. To be honest, I have never asked to be included in the Aljunied GRC team but was actually more interested in contesting in AMK GRC! From that day onwards, Shin Leong started to work on forming another team in Sembawang. I told him that Sembawang is not a good ground at all as compared to East Coast. After wasting a couple of months in Sembawang, Shin Leong and his team finally decided to switch to East Coast GRC instead. There was a great tussle between Thia Khiang and Shin Leong in forming the Sembawang/East Coast team. The original strategy was to focus on Aljunied GRC and Hougang only. I supported Shin Leong's effort to expand the battleground. I even wanted to form the AMK GRC team because I knew we have the numbers. Even though I was asked to contest in Aljunied GRC, I was still planning for AMK team. Unknown to me, Shin Leong was also quietly planning for it. During the CNY grassroot dinner in 2006, I told Shin Leong of my intention. I told him that we should be able to get at least 32% if our party contested in AMK. The Maths were all there. Realistically, we were not expecting to win Aljunied GRC at all. Our realistic assessment was at most 45% for Aljunied. We knew we have to prepare ourselves for the next GE after 2006. Whoever lead the team to contest in AMK would gain the necessary political capital for the next GE. Shin Leong sped up to secure the funds for his AMK team and approached Thia Khiang after knowing my intention. He got what he wanted. Although I was very disappointed that I wasn't able to contest the AMK GRC myself, but I was very happy for Shin Leong and his team's performance. We all knew WP will never be the same again after GE2006. After GE2006, WP had a massive influx of members and we had to re elect and appoint new key appointment holders. I have suggested to Thia Khiang that Shin Leong should become the President of Youth Wing but Thia Khiang disagreed and cited his reason. I was quite shocked to learned about the reason but it was a compelling reason which I couldn't argue with. I met Shin Leong for the last time face to face in 2011 right before GE. I was the SG of NSP then. He wasn't friendly towards me and told me "Meng Seng, you know, we will not contest Tampines this time round but we will contest next round...". I was shocked and felt bad about it, not because of his "threat" but rather how politics had changed our past comradeship into such hostility. He had somewhat made me a more important adversary than PAP. I always thought our common aim is to build Democracy for Singapore and PAP is the major obstacle. But I forgave him for such hostility. It's in his character of great competitiveness which provided the much needed passion and boost to go all out in what he did. When YSL saga first broke out, I wasn't surprised at all as it's just a matter of time. But I felt that he should have just apologized but stayed on as an MP. This was after all, his personal matters. I tried calling him but it was cut off. I tried to see him in his MPS but he avoided me totally. Both Seng Soon and I felt really bad that we have lost a good comrade and politician. Everyone has flaws and not a saint. Shin Leong was no exception. But Shin Leong has played a very important role in WP's Political Renaissance in almost every aspects. Together with the team, he has helped to bring WP up from its doldrums of GE 2001 in many ways. He may not be perfect in his dealings with many things but nobody could deny that he was an important catalyst and played an important role in WP's Growth. Farewell Shin Leong. It's regrettable that you had regarded me as some political adversary but I will still always regard you as a comrade in this long path of Democratic struggle. Rest in Peace.   Goh Meng Seng      Read More →