TR EMERITUS

The recent scandal involving the “inflation” of circulation figures at SPH Media Trust reminds me one of my first working experiences when I joined the Old Rogue, who was then in the process of starting his magazine. We had clicked and he asked if I could help out in driving circulation. As it turned out, the printed figure of 10,000 that was being placed in his media kit didn’t match with the actual print run. We had arguments over this. I tried to explain that I needed to know where magazines were going because potential advertisers would want to know. He would always reply, “I’m hiring you to get sales not to be a back office magician playing with circulation figures.” It then reached a stage when I had a potential advertiser who was asking for accurate circulation figures and he replied “You should ask her what figures she wants to see.” I remember these instances because it highlights one of the aspects of media business. Everyone knows editorial because people use media for the content. Everyone knows the advertising side because that is the revenue that pays the bills. Everyone forgets the third pillar, which is distribution or circulation. While circulation may be less well known than the other two, its an essential pillar because there’s no point of having the other two if the medium is being distributed to people. Advertisers want to know that who is reading their ad and editorial want to know that what they write is going to the people who will read. My Dad freaked at the idea of me working as an ad salesman for a small and unknown publication. His point was that an ad salesperson was the type of person that everyone would run away from. He made the point that “it wouldn’t be so bad if you were selling for the Straits Times, everyone knows the Straits Times.” Well, he had a point. Back on in those days, the Straits Times was sent to just about every English speaking household in the country. Circulation was around two million and the argument was that a copy would be sent to one place (mainly a house or office) and everyone would read it. An outline of what things like circulation and readership can be found here. One can also learn a bit more about what the saga at SPH means here: A lot of things are being said about this incident and for me, two things are clear. The most obvious point is that the normally “forward” looking Singapore government consistently gets exposed as “backward” whenever it comes to the media and nothing underlines this as much as this incident. Our government loves technology and has created program after program to try and make sure that Singapore is a shinning and glowing red dot in the world of technological progress. However, when it comes to the media, where good old fashioned print and broadcast are shielded from competition – including from each other. I think of Mr. Leslie Fong, who was editor in chief of the Straits Times and Vice-President of Marketing (as a disclaimer, Mr. Fong has worked with my mother and knows my father). Mr. Fong has been a champion of SPH’s business model. At the Ad Asia Symposium in 2005, Mr. Fong declared “The Effort to Go Tabloid is a Futile Effort to Dumb Down for Younger Eyeballs at the Expense of Older Ones.” At that point, the representative of Bennet & Coleman told him “You are a prisoner of your own business model,” and proceeded to tell him where the future was. It was unfortunate for Mr. Fong that in this instance, he had to address people from elsewhere. In Singapore, Mr. Fong is celebrated as an elder statesman who can take ministers to task for having the audacity to make announcements on social media instead of calling the mainstream media to a press conference. Part of this model that Mr. Fong defends so passionately involves being very critical of online media. We are constantly reminded that we need to look at the source of information and not to trust everything online. Unfortunately, this has started to sound like the time taxi drivers made noise about Uber Drivers cheating on their taxes only to find that the billing information was all on the Uber Platform and Uber Drivers were declaring honestly, whilst the taxi drivers on the other hand started getting uncomfortable questions from the tax authorities. As a blog publisher, I would love to claim that I had as many readers as any of the SPH publications. I would also love to get advertising revenue like the SPH papers. Unfortunately, Google has a nasty way of tracking exactly how many people click on my blog and the advertisers only pay when people click on the ads. Far from making things murkier, technology makes it more difficult to hide. Let’s face it, just as governments try and usually fail to control internet content, they’re active in the sphere of “cashless technology.” Simply put, its harder to hide when all payments are electronic and easy to trace. The second point that becomes clear is – “Why now?” Surely, this issue with circulation isn’t exactly new and can be a coincidence that the “inflation” of circulation figures is only being discovered now that you have someone from a business background running the show. The fact is SPH Media Trust used to be known as Singapore Press Holdings Limited. This was a company that had to answer to shareholders. Its survival depended on the fact that it had advertisers who were willing to advertise in its publication. As Singapore Press Holdings Limited, the accountability was to shareholders and advertisers on whom revenue came from. However, as SPH Media Trust, the story is different. There are no longer any shareholders demanding a financial return. They have “trustees,” who happen to be government linked and the need to prove that you are worthy of the advertising dollar no longer becomes a pressing issue when there’s a sugar daddy in the shape of the government. There’s no pressure on management to “deliver” a financial return when you are a non-profit and one has to ask why such potentially revenue damaging information only comes out when the entity no longer has to shareholders to answer to.   Tang Li *Although I’ve been based mainly in Singapore for nearly two decades, I’ve had the privilege of being able meet people who have crossed borders and cultures. I’ve befriended ministers and ambassadors and worked on projects involving a former head of state. Yet, at the same time, I’ve had the privilege of befriending migrant labourers and former convicts. All of them have a story to tell. All of them add to the fabric of life. I hope to express the stories that inspire us to create life as it should be.      Read More →

Economists started thinking about the possibility of a recession when it became apparent that inflation wasn't a temporary but a longer-lasting phenomenon. Expectations for a recession grew as rising prices persisted despite the Federal Reserve's decision to boost interest rates. For a long time now, economists have predicted a recession, and now most believe it will officially begin somewhere in the first half of next year. It can be argued whether it is shallow, deep, short, or long. However, the majority opinion among analysts indicates that the economy is entering a period of downturn. Many economists have included depression in their 2023 estimates. However, opinions on the exact date and depth of the downturn vary widely. Both sides blame the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies, even though the Fed came to the rescue following the last two recessions. Interestingly, part of the blame goes to the Covid-19 effects on demand and supply, caused by lockdowns that saw a large increase in online activity as most people got their entertainment from SlotoCash Casino and other online platforms. Why Economists Feel There is a Risk of Recession There are many potential causes or contributors to a recession; however, in 2023, there seem to be two that stand out as the greatest dangers to economic growth. Inflation is the biggest economic threat for 2023, and any investor that has not been hiding underneath a rock in the preceding year knows. In June 2022, the index for consumer prices climbed 9.1%, its biggest inflation figure in over 40 years. The second-largest risk factor in 2023 is the one thing that can help with inflation: increased interest rates. The cost of borrowing funds rises when interest rates rise, restricting businesses from using debt to finance growth investments. Higher rates also lower consumer spending, lessening demand pressures that contribute to rising prices. The Federal Reserve started its campaign of rapid interest rate increases in an effort to curb inflation. The Fed has increased its goal range for the federal funds rate from zero to its range of 3.75 percent to four percent. Thankfully, inflation has decreased from its June high of 9.1% to the most recent measurement in October's CPI of 7.7%. Nevertheless, 7.7% inflation still seems to be significantly well above The Fed's protracted target of 2%; thus, interest rates could likely move higher mostly in the coming months. The prolonged war between Ukraine and Russia has also sown confusion throughout the international energy market, especially in Europe. It seems conceivable that member countries of the union will be forced to do without Russian gas coming winter. A gas and oil price spike in the months ahead could devastate the already shaky U.S. economy. How Severe Will It Be If It Happens? A recession is defined as a period of economic contraction that lasts for two consecutive calendar quarters or longer and has widespread effects on the economy. When determining whether or not a recession has occurred, the National Bureau of Economic Research considers the downturn's severity, breadth, and duration. Nevertheless, the NBER may declare a recession when any of these factors become severe enough. For example, the 2020 pandemic slump was so severe and short-lived because of its fast onset and widespread effects. It is unknown how long regulators can sustain current high-interest rates. In the futures market, investors anticipate that the Federal Reserve will begin lowering interest rates by 2023. According to the Fed's own projections, interest rates will begin to fall in 2024. Swonk thinks the Fed will be forced to reverse course on rate hikes due to the recession, whereas Simons thinks a downturn may continue until the end of 2024, even if rates stay high. What Should Investors Do? Several broad tactics exist that investors can employ to mitigate losses and make the most of gains in a down economy. Before doing anything else, you should consider decreasing your dependence on volatile stocks and raising your cash reserves. While sitting on funds might not seem like the most thrilling move, it does limit exposure to market fluctuations and give you options in the event of a recession in 2023 that could lead to favorable buying conditions. In addition, savers can currently earn 3 percent or more with an online account, and that rate, along with others, will grow if the Federal Reserve raises its benchmark interest rate. Furthermore, value equities have often done better than growth stocks in times of higher interest rates. Discounted cash flow valuations of corporations suffer at increased interest rates, which is bad news for high-growth stocks. During economic downturns, certain equities and market sectors have a history of outperforming the market as a whole because they are more defensive. Income from utilities, healthcare, and consumer staples firms is relatively immune to economic fluctuations and consumer confidence, making them excellent candidates for defensive investments. Take Away While central banks combat inflation, China is reopening its economy following Covid-19 constraints, and the Ukraine war is driving the global economy into recession. Financial experts on Wall Street anticipate that the first quarter of the year will be volatile after the global markets had their greatest drop ever since the 2008 economic crisis. It is still anticipated that the US S&P 500 will close in 2023 at a little higher level than it opened the year.        Read More →

Some people think it's too "Chinese Chauvinist" to greet others " Happy Chinese New Year" because other places like Korea and Vietnam also celebrate this "Lunar New Year". Thus we should use " Happy Lunar New Year". This assertion is fundamentally wrong. The Chinese calendar is NOT a purely Lunar Calendar but an "Agricultural Calendar" (we call 農曆 in Chinese) which is a hybrid combination of both Lunar and Solar calendar. The Ancient Chinese has realized seasonal change depends on the calculation of the Sun's relative position or the Solar calculation and there will always be a difference in the number of days between lunar and solar year. Due to the need of setting agricultural dates, the Chinese incorporated the Solar calculation into their lunar based calculations. For every 2 or 3 years, they will add a month to the lunar based calendar to make up for the difference in the number of days as compared to solar year. Furthermore, they incorporated the 24 Solar terms into their Agricultural Calendar. Thus it is technically wrong to regard the Chinese New Year as Lunar New Year because it is a hybrid combination of both Lunar and Solar calculations. Vietnam and Korea were heavily influenced by Chinese culture and has adopted their Agricultural Calendar.   Goh Meng Seng      Read More →