TR EMERITUS

Most people don't understand statistics and how the Law of Large Number works but yet, they start to give nonsensical comments. Whenever people give their observations, they will quickly brush it aside as "not scientific" or "just your observations" or "isolated small observations" etc. Even when people commented that they have seen a significant change in observations for a PROLONGED period of time, they started to question about the validity of linking it to anything, definitely not the V! The famous excuse used is "correlation doesn't mean causation" but they just tell you half of the story, "correlation may mean strong signals of causation" which indicate that we need to be very careful and study further whether it may really be the case, especially when there are logical and sound hypothesis made. When such phenomenon or observations lasted for months or half a year or more, it means that this is not just an one off event or "outlier" observation but may be an indication of a fundamental change in situation and we must find out why. Especially so, when aggregated raw big data has started to show a disturbing trend of prolonged period of consistency of deviation from past data, it actually means SOMETHING IS REALLY WRONG! I do not need to know whether each and every patients ferried by the ambulance I heard or seen are carrying V or UnV people to come to that conclusion that something is very wrong. I don't even need to know whether they have died or not because I see more funerals around my neighborhood already! In fact, when the big data coincides with my observations, it just means that my individual experience isn't just "outlier" but it is happening all over Singapore and thus, result in showing in these big data. Data science may be a complex subject with a powerful inferences but it is built on fundamental principles of statistics which isn't that difficult to understand. Only people with a bias mind would try to deny everything when all the signals given by the data is pointing towards their inconvenient Truth. A hypothesis based on scientific theory has long been made and prediction was made a year ago about the situation we are seeing happening right now. Yes, I only believe in data and that doesn't mean I don't take individual's observations into account. In fact, big data will be the summation of all happenings. If your observations coincide with what the big data trend is saying, you are not outlier but in the midst of the effect of these happening.   Goh Meng Seng      Read More →

Does HDB make a big profit on selling the BTO flats in Ang Mo Kio at a high price? The minister for national development said that HDB did not make a profit, after factoring in the cost of land and construction. The deficit is larger when the govt grant is taken into consideration. From a narrow perspective, the minister is probably right. The books of HDB would probably show a deficit. However, the buyers have to pay a price that is much higher than similar size HDB flats sold in past decades. A large component of the increased price is probably due to the cost of land. The HDB has to buy land from the govt at the market price, which has recently sharply in recent years. The increase in land price is probably due to high demand and insufficient supply. It is well known that the govt controls most of the available land in Singapore. They are probably responsible for increasing the price of land by restricting the supply. In this respect, they are probably behaving like a greedy capitalist in maximizing their profit, in this case, from the sale of land through its monopoly power. If the govt wishes to bring down the price of land, they could increase the supply to an extent that the price stops rising. The ability of the govt to increase the supply is probably higher than the ability of the developers to buy the land. When buyers complain that the govt is making a large profit on selling the HDB flats, they are probably justified in expressing this opinion. The profit did not accrue to HDB, but instead to the govt through the land sale revenue. The minister should not apply his power to issue the POFMA on the website that alleges that HDB was making a profit. While technically, HDB did not make the profit, the govt did, and that was done through the proceeds of the land sale. We must not argue over technical details, when it is the spirit that counts. Anyway, I do not want to waste time arguing over semantics and other rubbish.   Tan Kin Lian      Read More →

The late Queen Elizabeth II passed away and the pap government has announced that our state flag at all government buildings will be flown at half mask (sic) on the day of her funeral as a mark of respect. I encourage feedback regarding this commentary in order to share, to educate and to enlighten our citizens. I thank you all in advance. I ask if such a decision is appropriate or necessary? As an independent and sovereign nation since 1965 and for over half a century alearly, I ask if the pap government has gone over the top with such an honour? Firstly, unlike Australia, our Head of State is our President and will forever be one of our own citizen and not a British or a foreigner. I understand and accept if Australia flies their state flag at half mask because of the late QE II's demise but for us? Next, although we are a former British colony and a member of the Commonwealth, still, I am not sold or convinced about the merits of flying our state flag at half mask at all our government buildings on the day of her funeral. Our state flag represents us collectively, our independence and our sovereignty. I challenge anybody to ask any average Singaporean men or women on the street about the late QE II's relationship with Singapore and I dare say that apart from historical reasons, the vast majority of them will struggle to come up with some truly good and most importantly, relevant answers. Paying respect to the deceased at the personal level by the ministers, that I totally understand but flying our state flag at half mask like in this case? I want to ask the pap government what are the criteria that must be fulfilled before a state funeral or the flying of our state flag at half mask is accorded. The flying of our state flag at half mask or according somebody a state funeral is the highest honour and respect that we as a nation can bestow on a departed person. Even our truly elected late people's President Ong Teng Cheong was not given a state funeral, therefore, I, as a citizen, ask what are the criteria for the flying of our state flag at half mask for a departed person or the holding of a state funeral? Surely it cannot be at the whim and fancy or suka suka of the pap government right? Think.   Simon Lim      Read More →