TR EMERITUS

The Government announced and state media reported that the economy had grown by 4.4% in the second quarter on a year-on-year basis. This was itself a slowdown from the advance estimate of 4.8% announced in July though of course the downward revision was not admitted in the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) press release. To paint a rosier picture, MTI said this was faster than the 3.8% growth recorded in the first quarter. However reading a little further I discovered that far from growth having accelerated in the second quarter, it was actually negative. On a month-on-month seasonally adjusted annualized basis the economy contracted by 0.2% . This should have been the significant news since it is a snapshot of how the economy is actually doing now rather than compared with the past. The figure of 4.4% is particularly misleading because there was a “circuit breaker” (the PAP’s euphemism for lockdown) during the second quarter of 2021. One of the benefits of having an independent media, whose duty is to hold the country’s leaders accountable rather than to ensure that they remain in office enriching themselves with millions of taxpayers’ funds and passing out plum jobs to their children, spouses and relatives, then the negative growth would have been highlighted as it has been in the UK (where the economy contracted by 0.1% in the same period, a better performance than Singapore). and in the US. Furthermore our Statistics Department is just part of MTI and not independent like in the UK, where by law the Office for National Statistics is separate from the Government. However the fake presentation to make growth look much better than it is appears to be only scratching the surface of the manipulation that is going on at MTI. Economic growth since 2019 has been largely driven by manufacturing, with increases in manufacturing output accounting for 132% of the growth in the economy. This of course means that if we exclude manufacturing the economy would be smaller today than it was in 2019. Never mind the fact that manufacturing employs relatively few Singaporeans, from executive to factory floor level, even though many of the foreign executives may subsequently be fast tracked to citizenship without the inconvenience of having to serve NS like ordinary SIngaporeans. Never mind the fact that the sector is largely foreign owned and its huge growth is likely only the result of enormous subsidies and zero tax concessions given by the PAP. In fact some of its output may be illusory and a transfer pricing exercise by MNCs from (relatively)high tax jurisdictions to low tax ones. Ireland has enjoyed enormous growth as well as a result of these fake tax accounting shenanigans without much impact on the real economy and the living standards of the Irish people. Similarly SIngaporeans do not see much benefit from this growth in manufacturing output in terms of jobs or income. The Wall Street Journal recently highlighted the growth of high tech manufacturing in Singapore while pointing out it employed relatively few people and omitting to mention the subsidies and tax benefits that must be necessary to induce MNCs to build their factories here rather than in the US or Europe. However that is not the end of the story. I dug a little deeper and found some puzzling anomalies. MTI uses 2015 prices to calculate real GDP. I looked at the figures for current GDP and GDP calculated using “chained” 2015 prices. For instance, comparing 2021 with 2019 (the last year before the pandemic) GDP at current market prices was 4% higher but when measured at 2015 prices was only 3% higher. However when I looked at manufacturing these figures were reversed. At current prices the manufacturing sector had grown by 12.9% whereas using 2015 prices manufacturing had grown by a whopping 21,7%, nearly 9% faster. Using MTI’s 2015 prices therefore may be making manufacturing’s growth appear much higher than it really is and masking negative growth in the rest of the economy. It is usual for prices of manufactured goods, where there are economies of scale, to fall relative to services, where the scope for productivity improvements has historically been much less. Economists also try to capture the hidden growth coming from the fact that manufactured goods today will likely be of higher quality or have extra features compared to those in the past through what are called ‘hedonic’ indices. But the scale of the difference in only seven years leads me to suspect that something fishy is going on and we should be wary of PAP claims of rapid economic growth and rising real wages when evidence to the contrary is all around us. In fact if we used 2022 prices which would give a lower weight to manufacturing then it is possible that real economic growth since 2019 has been negative and especially so if we look at the part of the economy excluding manufacturing. It appears that all economic growth is now coming from manufacturing and that this growth in fact is highly inflated. Using 2015 prices, manufacturing has expanded its share of the economy from 20% to 23% over the last two years but at current prices the share is nearly 2% lower. We would like an explanation and justification from MTI for what appear to be serious discrepancies that call into question the Government’s triumphalism. However, given Lawrence Wong’s failure to answer my questions about discrepancies in the Budget, I will be long dead and Singapore will have vanished below rising sea levels before I receive an answer.. The true figures for GDP growth , like the fake Budget expenditure figures , the Net Investment Returns Contributions that do not really exist, and the theoretically enormous reserves that strangely never benefit Singaporeans are just a few of the mysteries that we need answers to. My dear late father was fond of the quote from John 8:32 , “And ye shall know the truth and the truth shall make you free”. Perhaps one day Singaporeans will elect MPs who will demand answers to these fundamental questions, rather than ones who tiptoe around Parliament fearful of offending LHL, and by so doing at last achieve their freedom.   Kenneth Jeyaretnam   I’m a Singaporean economist who became an opposition activist. I blog to provide an alternative to the porkies that the Pinkies tell. It just so happens that my alternative is the truth. That’s why I’ve never been sued in any civil or criminal court no matter how hard hitting my criticism. I’m quoted and interviewed and asked to speak across the world but largely censored in Singapore in an effort to silence my political opinions. The left hate me because they think I split their vote and because I eschew their outmoded economic models. Models that don’t work. The Right and the Conservatives hate me because I’m a liberal. I’m not sure what the middle think of me. I don’t think there are more than a handful of people in the middle, here in Singapore. I’m a Singaporean born and bred, dual heritage, my parents Singaporean established here before the State of Singapore was created. I’m not Eurasian. I read economics at Cambridge and could be broadly described as from the Keynesian school but I believe in interventions. I was formerly a successful hedge fund manager. After economics and politics my greatest interests are history, film and Makan. I run but I run so I can eat like a Singaporean.      Read More →

Every year Singapore will put up grand show for National Day celebration with all sorts of stunts and rehearsals, trying to outdo the past NDP. NDP is mainly organized and coordinated by SAF, usually by a SAF Scholar officer who is slated for promotion. You may find it weird but yes, promotion of an army officer to general can be based on organizing a big event like NDP which has absolutely nothing to do with military warfare expertise. It would most probably take more than 6 months for SAF to start planning for NDP. We send our boys into army, navy, air force etc to learn how to defend our Nation during warfare and it cost our boys 2 years of their life with another 10 more in-camp training disrupting their working life. But instead, some of our boys wasted their months in army involving organizing NDP instead of focusing on military training. Lots of money and resources were thrown into organizing this yearly event, with rehearsals starting as early as June up till 9 Aug. Every rehearsal involved huge number of man-hours from PA and SAF. Do we really need 8 rehearsals spread over 2 months of weekends EVERY YEAR just for NDP? Big countries like US don't have such elaborated event for their Independence Day celebration every yea r. I find it quite wasteful to repeatedly organize big NDP with numerous rehearsals every year. I would prefer to have a formal NDP every 5 years or 4 years while in other years, we just have smaller community celebrations or smaller formal flag raising ceremonies with recitation of National Pledge. We don't need rehearsal after rehearsal while wasting precious military training time.   Goh Meng Seng      Read More →

According to Australian law, any child born outside Australia (AU) is an Australian citizen (by descend), if at least 1 parent is an Australian citizen. The mother can immigrate to AU after birth, and receives family benefits etc, up to A$30k per year until the child is 8 years. And even free housing. This is God sent for lonely single aunties (below 50) who have given up hope, and want a new life and motherhood. According to reports, 80% of the ladies in Shenzhen are single, and the majority have given up hope of ever getting married! What about in Singapore? Several IVF clinics are offering such services, ready with donated sperms from Aussie males.   Prof Wu Shin Yu      Read More →